区域能源与大气环境污染宏观控制预警指标研究

调研、剖析了国内外能源弹性系数,找出能源弹性系数正常值.选择能源弹性系数对区域能源与大气环境宏观控制做预警研究,并进行实例分析.结果表明,能源弹性系数K的正常值是0.5,如果某区域的K值连续3年以上持续大于0.8,则表明该区域的能源需求量增长过快,相应地环境中的大气污染物的排放量也增长过快,使该区域的能源需求和环境污染治理面临巨大的压力.因此可以把K值作为区域能源与大气污染宏观控制的预警指标,同时也可以作为城市的考核指标.我国2001-2004年连续4年的能源生产(或消费)弹性系数在1～1.7之间,远远超过了正常值,应发出预警信号,查找原因,迅速改变目前的经济增长模式.      

A Framework for Assessing Carbon Flow in Indian Wood Products

This paper uses a lifecycle analysis to trace the fate of carbon bound in wood products until most of the carbon is released back into the atmosphere. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to find the effect of change in terminal use (recycling, land filling and burning of discarded products), half-life of wood products and decay rate of carbon in landfills. Of the total carbon harvested from forests in India, about 90% is released into the atmosphere in the first year, due to burning of fuelwood; at the end of 100 years, about 0.8% still remains in the wood products. The sensitivity analysis shows that the length of the lifespan of wood products has only a marginal effect on the amount of carbon sequestered but has significant effect on the amount of carbon in products in use. Thus an important conclusion from this scenario is that by increasing the durability of the wood products, carbon can be locked over a period equal to the time needed to grow the timber for these products. Further, the carbon storage is affected more significantly by the decay rate of carbon in landfills than the proportion of products recycled. The study also shows that wood products can be important stores of carbon, but only if they can substitute for a unit of carbon emitted by burning fossil fuels. Such a lifecycle analysis has the potential to account completely for carbon stock changes in the wood products, where and when they are occurring, and explain how they are occurring.     

从油气资源状况论我国未来能源发展战略

我国油气可采资源量分别为140×10⁸t和9.3×10¹²m³,但与世界平均水平相比,我国油气资源却相对贫乏。目前,我国石油资源勘探程度较高,储量、产量增长的潜力有限,石油在未来一次能源消费中的比例只能略有上升,保持在25%～26%;而天然气资源勘探程度却很低,正处在高速发展阶段。天然气在未来一次能源消费中的比例有望较快增长,预计从2000年的2.5%上升到2015年的9.4%;与之对应,煤炭消费比例会有所下降,但不会改变煤炭在一次能源消费中的首要地位。为此,根据我国油气资源、能源消费和能源需求变化等特点,对未来能源发展战略提出5条建议:节能降耗,提高能源利用率,实施可持续发展战略;大力发展洁净煤技术;依靠科技进步,加大油气勘探开发力度,优化能源结构;实施“走出去”战略,积极参与国际油气市场;积极开发新能源,实现能源供应多元化。     

中国城市水资源消费与气候的关系研究

论文利用多项式法将气候耗水量从水资源消费总量中分离出来,用统计分析的方法探讨了气候耗水量与气候因子之间的关系。研究表明:温度、降水量和相对湿度是影响气候耗水量的主要气候因子,在不同地区、不同季节有不同表现,在我国东部,二者的相关性较显著,西部不太明显,而且冬、春季的区域分异明显,夏、秋季不明显,其中冬季在南北向的分异明显,春季在东西向的分异明显。     

火电厂清洁生产的可持续性分析与评估

从企业生态角度分析了火电厂清洁生产的可持续性;运用能值理论对火电厂清洁生产的可持续性进行了评估;以某发电厂采用清洁生产为实例进行了可持续性分析,结果表明:火电厂清洁生产的可持续性明显提高。     

同分异构体喹啉和异喹啉的缺氧降解性能比较

研究了同分异构体的含氮杂环化合物喹啉和异喹啉在缺氧条件下的降解情况,发现两者表现出不同的缺氧降解特性。喹啉可以在缺氧条件下得到有效降解,其缺氧降解的最佳碳氮比为8。在最佳碳氮比条件下,喹啉的缺氧降解过程符合一级动力学规律,在其降解过程中首先以硝酸盐为电子受体,当硝酸盐氮浓度为零时,亚硝酸盐氮浓度达到最高,此后喹啉的降解主要以亚硝酸盐为电子受体,并和亚硝酸盐氮同时达到最低浓度。异喹啉对硝酸盐的利用甚微,其降解主要表现为厌氧降解特征,降解过程符合零级动力学规律。     

Development of new monthly global and diffuse solar irradiation estimation methodologies and comparisons

In assessing and deciding the prediction schemes of solar irradiation countrywide, better the accuracy means better the management of energy transition toward renewables. Consequently, the present study is on the development of new models to make the most accurate possible estimations of the global and diffuse solar irradiation based on ground measurements. Such analysis produces the most accurate estimations for the input of solar energy systems. This is utmost significant for deciding the investments on solar energy systems and their design periods. Turkey is a high-potent country whose solar energy market has been growing rapidly. She doesn’t have adequate reliable measurement network and there is no estimation methodology developed for each and every point within its territory. Moreover, installing such a measurement system network doesn’t seem to be economically feasible and technically possible, inter alia. Accordingly, this study defines a methodology to make the most accurate estimations of monthly mean daily solar irradiation on horizontal surface and its diffuse and beam components. For the global and diffuse estimations, new methodologies in linear and quadratic forms are developed, compared, and discussed. The comparison is applied by using mean bias error and root mean square error statistical comparison methods. The measured data values used for modeling and comparisons are provided from the State Meteorological Service of Turkey responsible authority for solar irradiation measurements. The results revealed that the methodologies explained in this study give very high accurate values of total solar irradiation on a horizontal surface and its diffuse component.     

不干胶废弃物热重分析

为了探索不干胶类包装废弃物的热解特性,采用热重分析手段分析了不同升温速率条件下不干胶类废弃物的失重特点,并且采用Ozawa法和KAS法比较分析不同转化率条件下的表观活化能分布.热重分析结果表明,不干胶类废弃物的热解主要分为3个阶段:第1阶段(室温～ 200℃)为不干胶类废弃物的干燥阶段,第2阶段(200 ～ 590℃)为热解的主要阶段,第3阶段(590 ～800℃)为热解半焦的深度热解阶段.升温速率对热解失重率有重要影响,Ozawa法和KAS法计算结果表明,2种方法计算的热解活化能比较接近,Ozawa法得到的活化能为349.9 kJ/mol,KAS法得到的活化能为336.9kJ/mol;并且不干胶类废弃物的热解表观活化能呈现出阶段性分布.     

北京市居民PET饮料瓶的消费及回收行为研究

2010年,中国成为世界上PET饮料瓶使用量最大的国家,但中国目前缺乏正规、完整的废PET饮料瓶回收系统,导致了严重的社会与环境问题.因此,采用街头访问的方式,对北京市PET饮料瓶的回收情况展开调研.结果显示,消费后的废PET饮料瓶,44％被消费者存放在家里以卖钱,56％被消费者直接扔进垃圾桶.通过拾荒者、流动回收人员等回收者的回收行为,北京几乎所有的废PET饮料瓶都得到了回收,其中90％是由非正规的回收者回收的.回收后的废PET饮料瓶绝大部分都被小型的、非正规的、没有环境污染防治设施的小工厂使用.     

不同城市生活垃圾焚烧技术的综合评价

通过工程的经济性分析、工艺过程的能流分析以及工程的环境影响分析,综合分析了流化床、炉排炉、气化熔融和等离子体气化等不同城市生活垃圾焚烧技术。结果表明:(1)在零补贴的情况下,流化床焚烧技术的工程效益最佳,但从项目投产年算起,其投资回收期也需9年;炉排炉、气化熔融与等离子体气化焚烧技术要达到流化床焚烧技术零补贴情况下的经济效益,分别需补贴约70、140、500元/t。(2)各城市生活垃圾焚烧技术下区域的水体富营养化和全球变暖影响最显著,而人体毒性影响最小。气化熔融焚烧技术和等离子体气化焚烧技术的环境影响比其他两种焚烧技术小一个数量级。(3)考虑污染物排放的环境效益,在现行中国排放标准下,流化床、炉排炉与气化熔融焚烧技术的工程效益都将得到较大提升。随着排放标准的更加严格,流化床焚烧技术的年收益率下降最显著;气化熔融焚烧技术的工程效益相较最优。